Thursday, October 4, 2012

Predicting the 2012 MLB playoffs

Despite how impossibly easy it is for me to conceive of a 2012 postseason without our beloved Red Sox, there is still one way I can talk about baseball without having to relive the horror that was April 5th, 2012, to October 3rd, 2012. More on the firing of Bobby Valentine later, but in the same style as my 2011 predictions, here goes nothing:

League Division Series
Yankees vs. Orioles
Yes, I'm continuing to ride the hot streak of the Baltimore Orioles, now lasting an approximate six months. They'll beat the Rangers and finally get the chance to face the Yankees, an opportunity they haven't had since early September. I think the Orioles have more pitching than the Yankees, and with the first two games of the series in Baltimore, they find a way to get the upper hand heading into New York. The Yankees are good, but Baltimore has been too good for too long for me not to think they can keep it up.

Athletics vs. Tigers
How can you pick against Oakland? A team that has been playing very well, and quietly so, also has the young pitching to shut down the Tigers' offense. Justin Verlander has pitched very well against Oakland (2-0 in 2012), but as we saw last year, it's the hot teams that ride the postseason train. Oakland moves on after a grueling five-game set that no one pays attention to because of the Yankees/Orioles matchup.

Nationals vs. Braves
Bud Selig got very lucky when it became evident that the Braves and Cardinals would have a one-game playoff to determine who moves on in the playoffs - the exact same scenario that would have happened last year, barring the total collapse of Atlanta. This could be the most exciting of the LDS matchups because of the pitching on both sides. It's young, effective, and backed by a good-enough offense. I don't have much confidence in this pick, but I like Washington. I'm not really sure why, but I do.

Reds vs. Giants
The Giants just don't seem to do it for me. They lack an incredible offense, and despite their strength in pitching, their bullpen has been very shaky for most of the second half. Cincinnati has turned it up several notches and has the back end to finish games. Cincinnati moves on easily.

League Championship Series
Athletics vs. Orioles
Didn't see this one coming in April, huh? The best part is that one of them has to move on. I think that being bad for so long finally caught up to Baltimore - all of their young players seemed to click at the same time. (As opposed to, say, the Boston Red Sox. There, I said it. We suck.) Which is what Oakland's players seem to be one or two years off from doing. I think that both of these teams can contend in their respective divisions, and that their 2012 season wasn't a fluke. As far as who moves on to the World Series, I like Baltimore. With the momentum that any team has coming into the postseason, Baltimore is the one that can win any game: an AL-best 46-35 road record, SIXTEEN extra inning wings, and a 29-9 record in one-run games. Baltimore edges out Oakland to move on to its first World Series since 1983.

Nationals vs. Reds
Of every possible LCS matchup, this seems to be the most appealing. It's seemed pretty clear that these have been the two best teams in the National League, especially since July, and both teams have the tools to win a championship. However, Washington seems to have the edge across the board, despite the recent tear the Reds' offense has been on. Pitching wins championships, and Washington's corps will tame the Reds offense more than Cincinnati's pitchers can slow down the Nationals' offense. It's a Baltimore/Washington World Series, something I totally didn't plan, but love how it played out.

World Series
Nationals vs. Orioles
Everyone always speculates at playoff time what the worst World Series matchup would be for the TV ratings. (Editor's Note: Oakland/Cincinnati. Who would care?) I think that this matchup has potential to be one of the most-watched, being two teams who haven't seen the World Series in a long time, and playing in the same area. As far as the baseball goes, no one has been able to stop the Nationals this year. They were swept by the Dodgers in April, losing three games by four runs. Sweeps by the Yankees, Philadelphia, and Atlanta, but never getting blown out. Nothing they couldn't overcome. With Strasburg, they have an unstoppable pitching staff. Without him, they have had four guys who have stepped up across the board. The pitching takes Washington to the top, winning the World Series in their first appearance.

So, there it is. Winners from every series. Logically, I think I make sense. Then again, there's a pretty good chance that all of these could be wrong. Probably that one. Oh well...

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