Acrobat

My eyes dart around the train, music pulsing into my ears.
Seated comfortably, my eyes pause at
Every pair they see.
Two in the finance section of the Globe.
Another ten that are locked onto the screen of an iPhone or Kindle.
At least six that are closed. About a dozen concealed behind glasses.

What do the eyes wait for?
The next update of a news feed, or perhaps
Another round of Words with Friends?
Only a few eyes stare out the windows,
Taking in the universe at sixty miles per hour.

Mine remain fixed on another pair,
Briefly,
Until they escape somewhere else
So as not to be taken the wrong way.

But for a moment,
We were connected.
Two sets of eyes
Creating an invisible tightrope,
Perfectly parallel to the heavens and the earth.

How I wish to be an acrobat,
Dancing along the wire
Between the eyes.
A balancing act, situated
In the middle of the human connection.

2014 Home Run Derby running diary

Who doesn't love large men using wooden sticks to hit baseballs very, very far? And who doesn't love a varsity high school career .125 hitter blogging about it? I did a running diary of the All-Star Game last year, but we'll switch it up this time around.

8:02pm Apparently this is in a rain delay? That's a thing?? Disclaimer: this running diary is now subject to me falling asleep in a couple of hours.

8:04 So this thing is broken down bracket-style this year, and you can find all the rules and hitters in the competition over to the right. My pick is Jose Bautista, which I made sure to sneak in on Twitter about 15 minutes ago. Just in case I'm right.

8:08 One of my favorite things ever is when someone is speaking Spanish and all of a sudden something like "Home Run Derby" leaves their lips.

8:26 Adam Wainwright, while not hitting any home runs in this competition, has still been talked about as the named starter for the National League in tomorrow night's All-Star Game. I think that he doesn't get the credit he deserves as one of the best pitchers in the game, and he'll have the chance to make even more of a name for himself tomorrow.

8:31 They should totally let these guys use an aluminum bat when they're down to their final out. Nothing was better than watching the baseball go 650 feet with the aluminum power in Backyard Baseball.

8:35 HOLD on, was that just Jack Edwards broadcasting the 1998 Little League World Series featuring Todd Frazier?

8:36 Hold on, Todd Frazier was in the Little League World Series in 1998? I was in Little League in 2003...this is foolish.

8:46 Derek Jeter is such a class act. Respects the game, respects the players and his place in history...there's a great article about him written by Jayson Stark that you can read here. Perfectly captures his character.

8:48 Alright, this seven-minute conversation with Jeter is great and all, but the fact that they're airing it for this long makes me think that this Home Run Derby isn't starting for some time.

8:54 You know that point in a three-hour movie where you decide that it's definitely past the point that you think the movie should keep playing? That's how I feel about Chris Berman announcing the Home Run Derby every year.

8:59 I'd like to believe that this will be quicker than Home Run Derbies in years past, and it better, because I'll be damned if I see the other side of 11:00 tonight.

9:02 Yeah, that's totally Jack Edwards announcing the 1998 Little League World Series. Love that man.

9:03 It's still raining at Target Field, which I'm sure has an effect on the home runs being hit, but all of the guys with microphones at this thing are making a huge deal about all the strategy and such...at least from me, I don't care about the strategy, or who's pitching...I just wanna see dudes hit baseballs really far.

9:06 Todd Frazier on the board with the first home run of the Derby, and a rainbow shines over the field, and it'll be all over Twitter pretty soon. Here's an awesome double rainbow at Fenway Park.

9:09 In case you had never thought about this before, Brian Dozier looks exactly like Paul "Fitzy" Fitzgerald, Boston YouTube hero.

9:13 The two most underrated parts about any given Home Run Derby - little kids running to catch every fly ball in the outfield, and those random people who are selected to win a house or something if their Derby hitter wins the competition.

9:15 Just found out on Twitter that it's 56 degrees in Minnesota right now. It's Twitter, so it's definitely true, making it the coldest Derby ever. Two hitters with two HR apiece, as Frazier and Dozier haven't really done much.

9:17 Alright, instead of people getting houses, it's children getting baseball equipment and a field refurbishment. That's pretty cool too, I guess.

9:23 Four home runs for Troy Tulowitzki and it's time for my pick, Jose Bautista, to take to the batter's box.

9:27 It's great to see everyone's reactions to fans either catching or dropping home run balls. There needs to be a compilation video on YouTube one of these days.

9:28 And we have our first non-HR-Derby-player-interacting-with-a-batter as Robinson Cano gives Bautista some Gatorade. Riveting stuff, people. Ten home runs for Bautista and my pick to win it all is sitting pretty after two batters for each side.

9:37 Seven consecutive outs for explosive star Yasiel Puig, and he somehow still gets an ovation from the crowd. Took him about two minutes to finish the whole thing. Maybe next year, kid.

9:43 Four home runs for Adam Jones, and Jose Bautista is still the only person with a higher total (10). It's shaping up to be a quick Home Run Derby this year.

9:45 Hold on, they have high school players hitting home runs in between the MLB guys doing it? That makes no sense...

9:50 Time for Giancarlo Stanton, otherwise known as Mike Stanton, otherwise known (apparently) as Giancarlo Cruz Michael Stanton. Take your pick.

9:51 Despite anything you might think, Stanton is actually from California. Here's a picture of the most American batting sleeve ever, as he starts crushing baseballs 430 feet.

9:55 Did I say 430 feet? I meant 510 feet. FAR.

9:59 Josh Donaldson up now for the American League, but I'm thinking about some kind of MLB Skills Competition. Bunting down the lines, accurate throws from the outfield, pickoff attempts or something like that...maybe not...three for Donaldson and one hitter remains for each team in the first round.

10:04 Alright, I'm tired of all these Chevrolet commercials. Give me Bob Seger or give me death!

10:06 Cool moment for Justin Morneau, longtime Minnesota Twin, as he steps into the box for his round. He ends up with two home runs, same as Todd Frazier, so they'll have one of these swing-off shenanigans to determine who makes it into the next round.

10:14 Yoenis Cespedes, 2013 Derby champ, gets some advice from fellow Cuban Jose Abreu (29 HR this season so far (that's a lot)) before his final out. He ends up with as many homers as his teammate, Donaldson, and we'll spend the next 10 minutes in swing-off world, which I don't like. The tiebreaker in the first round should be distance of all home runs.

10:20 Frazier wins the NL swing-off by a resounding 1-0 score, a result that will likely be the final for the AL. Go overtime! Cespedes takes it 2-1 over Donaldson, and we have our second round. Guess I'm not getting eight hours of sleep tonight...

10:28 I love the old Home Run Derby. Always used to be on ESPN Classic, which I totally wish was still on cable.

10:32 Picture of the night - Jeff Samardzija, currently an Oakland Athletic, shown not wearing an American nor National League jersey. He was traded from the Cubs a couple weeks ago, made the National League All-Star squad, but will sit in the AL dugout tomorrow night. Awesome.

10:37 Looks like it'll be Frazier and Stanton in the National League final - Cespedes and Adam Jones will square off for the right to face Bautista.

10:48 Alright, I'm fading. Quickly losing interest in this, but I feel as though I need to keep powering through. But there's at least another 45 minutes of this left, and I'll be damned if I go to sleep at 11:30 for the second night in a row. Sorry world...but let's be honest, if you actually made it all the way to this point, you'd probably benefit from something other than the Home Run Derby. So, I leave you with this.

Why you need to listen to instrumental music

Close your eyes, and count to ten, slowly. Open your eyes after.

You just let go. For ten brief moments, you distanced yourself from everything that was going on in your life. Maybe it wasn't profound, maybe you didn't have any epiphany, but in the ten brief moments you just had, you were simply existing in this universe. So much of what we do is connected to being as fast-paced as possible, to being as connected as we can possibly be, that we don't just be anymore. We don't just sit, close our eyes, and think about our place in the world, or possible lack thereof.

If there's any general theme that you've gleaned from reading my blog, it's that I'm in love with instrumental music. Words are excellent and all - I wouldn't be writing this without them - but the absence of words from instrumental music affords us the opportunity to just break free from everything. I'm on the commuter rail in and out of Boston each day, and I see people - myself included - with their faces buried into their newspapers, or iPads, or notes for work, or Twitter, to the point where almost nobody is just sitting. Everybody is engaged with something. Some of my favorite car rides are the times that I have no music playing; I'm just driving and listening to the sounds of the world instead of what's coming out of my speakers. Now this might seem like a big leap for people who thoroughly enjoy music when they drive, or refresh the Internet every 45 seconds at night, but seriously, find some time to just let go.

Life is ephemeral. If you've ever read The Little Prince, we're just like the flower on his planet. Ephemeral, and needing to be taken care of. We're not doing that enough, and we're hardly doing it for ourselves. So take ten more brief moments. Close your eyes and sink into the abyss. If you're looking for an introduction into instrumental music, try this. Surprisingly, it's not Explosions in the Sky, but it will do as a start. Either way, take those moments of detachment from the universe. Simply be.

Let go.

The magic is running out

Let's talk about the Boston Red Sox. It's an off day for the local nine on this July 3rd, and one could say that it's been an off season for the club as a whole in 2014. Coming into the day, the Red Sox were 8.5 games back of the AL East lead, sitting at a record of 38-47. But let's not talk about what's happened. Let's talk about what it means.

We're at a point for the Red Sox where many (myself included) are thinking that 2013 was the aberration in the most recent years of Boston baseball. Go back one season, and everything worked out for the Sox - Shane Victorino hit .294 in 122 games. David Ortiz drove in 100 runs and was selected to his ninth All-Star Game in ten seasons. Mike Napoli was healthy and productive at first base. Four starting pitchers had double-digit wins. The team had 11 walkoff wins by the beginning of August, capped off by overcoming a five-run deficit to Seattle on August 1st. The season was purely magical, coming off the momentum from what happened in April at the Boston Marathon. Everyone was healthy and productive, and the season culminated in a World Series win at Fenway.

None of that was supposed to happen.

The season the Red Sox had in 2013 was unforgettable, and was one of the most fun and exciting teams to ever follow. But this 2014 campaign looks more like the Red Sox we've expected. Victorino has played in a quarter of the team's games. No outfielder on the 25-man roster is hitting better than .234. The pitching staff is on pace to have two pitchers (Jon Lester and John Lackey) with more than six wins. Of the 14 hitters on the 25-man roster, six have spent time in Pawtucket in either 2013 or 2014, and four of these are regulars in the lineup (Brock Holt, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley, Daniel Nava). The team's two best players are on the wrong side of 38-years-old (David Ortiz, Koji Uehara).

If you exclude the 2013 season, the Red Sox' winning percentage since September of 2011 is .416 (114-160). Zero playoff wins since 2008 outside of the World Series run. Two managerial changes since the 2011-12 offseason. I'd like to say that it's time to push the panic button on the 2014 Red Sox, but there might not have even been one to begin with.

The ship is syncing

Here's where we're at in society in terms of technology. We have what seems to be an endless supply of potential in terms of technological advances. I'm typing this on a computer that isn't attached to any monitors, or anything at all for that matter. Pretty soon, I'll post this page to two social media sites that allow for essentially anything to be visible to the public. I do this because it works - because I really can't think of any other way to communicate my thoughts other than sending it to as many people as possible at once. Some will read it, most will not (you're in the first category, obviously), but I do this for the some who will.

There are a ton of messages that are being sent that are imploring us to get off our phones. Contrarily, there seem to be just as many that remind us how powerful technology can be. Take a look at two of them here.

There are valid points in each of these videos. I can see both sides of the coin, and I think that each of these videos is done well enough so that you can glean what the message is from each. Which brings me to my point - technology isn't inherently something that's killing our minds or allowing us to connect with everyone, there isn't any black-or-white-ness to all of this. It's how you use technology that makes it what it is. If you're someone who needs to be on their phone for work purposes, or need to FaceTime someone to have the only interaction possible with that person, then technology means a lot more to you than someone who's more old-school and doesn't need those in their life. Technology, like anything in life, exists in relation to its functionality. (Editor's Note: Future blog post?)

So I leave you with this - my post title - the ship is syncing. This one sentence has two separate meanings, depending on your spelling of the final word. One side of the coin is a technological revolution that can make anything seem possible. The other, a driving force behind the loss of personal touch and connection. Where are you on the ship?

8 songs with one really good lyric

Well, it's been almost two full weeks since my last blog post, which is definitely too long in between posts. So I decided to go back into the archives and find something I said I would blog about. Luckily, music is always there for me, and I have a few blog posts up my sleeve for times like these (pun intended). So, here are eight songs with one really good lyric in them.

1. One Headlight - The Wallflowers
I think your death, it must be killing me (3:45)
I'm a huge fan of contradictions in writing, and not that this is necessarily a contradiction, but it uses a similar theme in a contradiction sort of way. I dunno, it's just really, really awesome. The whole song is, lyrically, so it's an easy choice for the first song on the list.

2. A Long December - Counting Crows
It's been so long since I've seen the ocean, I guess I should (3:40)
Again, a song that I had in mind when I was coming up with this list, full of excellent lyrics. There must be something about the last line before the final chorus...songwriters seem to want to make that count more than the rest of the lyrics.

3. Passing Afternoon - Iron & Wine
A baby sleeps in all our bones, so scared to be alone (3:00)
In addition to being the music played during the saddest part of House ever, this song follows the seasons in the lyrics, which I'm a big fan of. I think that I remember these words because they're the last ones sung, but it's a really fascinating line if you give it some thought.

4. Waves - Young the Giant
We can analyze, philosophize, but who's to say? All we know is we're here today (0:24)
Such a cool song on a really good second album by Young the Giant. This line in particular kinda says everything I think about the world. A very similar thread to cultivating our garden, à la Candide, which is why this line makes the list.

5. American Baby - Dave Matthews Band
And if I don't see you, I'm afraid we've lost the way (2:11)
Again, a song that is written well up-and-down, but I love the harmonies for this particular line. Again, also the last line before the final chorus. Psychologically this makes perfect sense, because we tend to remember the ends of lists (hey, song lyrics are lists) better. Possible music thesis?

6. #41 - Dave Matthews Band
I will go in this way, and find my own way out (1:45)
More fun with contradictions, and while I've been saying that a lot of these songs have great lyrics throughout, Dave Matthews' lyrics anywhere are phenomenal. I could probably have ten songs here just from him, but I'll diversify.

7. Last Train Home - Lostprophets
Even when you think you're right, you have to give to take (0:48)
One of the best lines of all time. One hundred percent a true line, and I love how the give and take plays off each other. Which reminds me of another excellent lyric!

8. Break the Spell - Daughtry
I can fight you 'til the end, but I will lose you if I win so I guess I'll just keep on giving in (1:21)
Lots of opposing words in single lines throughout this song, but I particularly like how this one sounds. If you follow along with the whole song, you can see how this line makes perfect sense in the scheme of the rest of the lyrics.

Everybody Dies, again

Wow, again.

What a series finale of House. Still as perfect as it was the first time around. I attempted a running diary of the episode, but I realized that I needed to take it all in at once, and that I couldn't be stopped by typing every few minutes. For starters, there was absolutely stellar writing throughout the entire episode. Each of the four hallucinations (Kutner, Amber, Stacy, Cameron) played to character perfectly, and what I came to realize this time around is that all of the people who were a part of House's life were an extension of him. Whether it be through his teachings as a diagnostician, or House imposing his beliefs upon those close to him, we got to see House through the eyes of other people. Each hallucination had a pretty resonant line, one that neatly captured the moment and what House's subconscious was thinking. And the funeral scene was amazingly done, too. Everyone was aware of the impact that House had on their lives, good or bad, and when it came down to it, the last thing House did was sacrifice all that he had in his life for five months of being with his best friend. Pretty remarkable for a person who believes that people don't change.

The whole series though...I had seen most of the episodes in the seventh and eighth seasons only once, so it was interesting to kind of follow along with the storyline after two or three years since I first saw them. A lot of the older seasons I've seen a half-dozen times, so I know those episodes much better, but to track everything for a second time, was pretty cool.

What made the first three seasons so strong, and Seasons Four through Six strong in a different sense, was that we got very in-depth with learning about the team. With the new members of the team in the last two seasons, we didn't have much of a chance to get to know them - they existed merely as extensions of House. But by the end of the series, we knew Cameron, Chase, Foreman, Thirteen, and Taub, very well. Even Kutner, in the limited time he had across two seasons. This show was really good at showing us the challenges each character went through and what the importance of it was, whether this was shown through a relationship with a particular patient, or something about the secondary storyline that was going on.

All in all, fantastic show. Favorite of all time, and easily the show that I've learned the most from and have made a part of my life. Pretty spectacular. If you've been keeping up with my favorite posts, thanks for doing so, and if you've never seen House, hopefully I've done some things that will get you excited to watch it.

Babel: The other Mumford & Sons album

To be honest, I've wanted to write this blog post for over a year, but I've actually never got around to it. In a fashion very similar to when I blogged about the first Mumford & Sons album, I want to go through Babel in its entirely and talk about each song. We're both in for a surprise, because I have no idea where this will take me, so we're in for the ride together.

1. Babel. I'm coming out with this now, I'm also keeping track of how many songs on this album have either a "whoop!" or a "har-har" part in it. From past listening experience, at least half of the songs fall into one category or the other. That being said, this is a good song that starts off the album, which I will do my best to say doesn't sound like the first album. Even though it might.
Favorite part: The start of the second verse. It's like the first verse, but I like it more, for some reason.
Whoop/Har-Har: Whoop (1:22)

2. Whispers In The Dark. I'm not really sure what to make of this song, I mean it's pretty decent but it's never really been a song I've went out of my way to listen to, unlike some songs on this album. I'll spend this song bringing up the YouTube video and finding out where the whoop is.

Favorite part: The background guitar in the beginning, which is honestly more of an extension of "Babel" than anything to do with this song.

Whoop/Har-Har: More of a "woo!", but it's at 2:26.

3. I Will Wait. This was the first single off the album, and it's pretty decent. Your run-of-the-mill M&S song, which, if you ask the right people, is just like every M&S song.

Favorite part: The piano buildup from 2:30 to 3:17, leading up to none other than...

Whoop/Har-Har: Whoop (3:17)

4. Holland Road. What's cool about this song (and some others by M&S) is that you can simultaneously count in two or in three (one, two, one, two or onetwothree onetwothree). There's definitely a name for when that happens, but I have no idea what it is. This is the first song on the album to feature a har-har, but this one is actually good, as opposed to the cliche har-har that pervades most other M&S songs.

Favorite part: When the brass section pretty much plays the exact same melody as the har-har (another M&S staple). Many find this to be the reason they can't stand this band, but I like it. Expectations are good.

Whoop/Har-Har: Har-Har (2:52 and 3:25)

5. Ghosts That We Knew. This might have been the first song I heard off the album, and it might have been the first one that I showed any affection towards (no correlation). This just feels like a tender song, one that you kind of have to listen to in the right moment, in the right mood.

Favorite part: I'm a huge sucker for choruses that have piano chords playing whole notes, and the first chorus has exactly this. Really peaceful, with a slight feeling of conviction in there. I also love the guitar at 3:55 and 4:14. Perfectly captures the tone of this song.

Whoop/Har-Har: Surprisingly none.

6. Lover Of The Light. I think this was a song I listened to a lot the summer after Babel came out, but it's faded quickly in terms of songs I really enjoy. I do really like the cymbal crash after "lover of the light", and I've always felt that "sanguine eyes" was always a cool phrase, but there really isn't much to this song for me.

Favorite part: The little banjo riff/solo kinda thing that leads into the last chorus of the song.

Whoop/Har-Har: For the second song in a row, neither!

7. Lovers' Eyes. Definitely one of my favorite song off the album. I've always loved toying with the idea of whether or not Marcus Mumford means to say lovers' eyes, or lover's eyes possessive, but the title kind of gives it away as the former. If anything, the cymbal crash in this song is way better than in "Lover Of The Light," and there's another really cool "one, two, onetwothree" part.

Favorite part: The two-minute buildup that features the banjo preparing the brass section preparing the lyrics preparing the har-har. Vintage Mumford & Sons.

Whoop/Har-Har: Har-Har (4:49)

8. Reminder. I almost don't even count this as part of the album. I just don't get it...it's two minutes and five seconds short, while the rest of the album averages in the ballpark of 4:45 per song. This feels like a song that people would play standing on the side of a road, or maybe in Harvard Square or something like that.

Favorite part: 2:05.

Whoop/Har-Har: Neither, but there isn't much time for one anyway.

9. Hopeless Wanderer. Here's where it gets good. This is one hell of a song to play on piano, and equally fun on guitar. The music video says everything that you need to know about what kind of song this is and what kind of band Mumford & Sons is. It's pretty much a crystal ball view into what their music is really like. Portrayed beautifully.

Favorite part: The smashing guitar at 1:41.

Whoop/Har-Har: None, but this song gets a pass because it's so awesome.

10. Broken Crown. This song kicks ass. Easily the closest thing to "Dust Bowl Dance" or "Thistle and Weeds" from Sigh No More. Bonus points to the band for swearing in this song and being really loud. The part that starts "But I will not speak of your sins" is really good and sets up the rest of the song. That part of the song is almost eerily preparing you for something badass to happen.

Favorite part: The yelling part for pretty much the second half of the song. But also the last chorus, because it's real quiet and whispered, but has just as much power as the yelling parts.

Whoop/Har-Har: None, but again, it's okay.

11. Below My Feet. This song is definitely my favorite off the album. A few songs battle every now and then for the second spot on the list, but this one has everything wrapped into a neat little five minutes. I love love love the guitar in the background, pacing the song with sixteenth notes. There are so many great rhythm combinations, too. It's just perfect. Perfect lyrics, too. They make everything seem very real, and in classic Mumford & Sons fashion, seem to flawlessly tread the line between the sacred and the secular. (Ooh, I like that phrase. Sounds like an album title.)

Favorite part: When everything comes together at 3:37, the emotion and the guitar, once in the background, now prevalent with everything else.

Whoop/Har-Har: Har-Har (3:21, and again at 4:12)

12. Not With Haste. Another great line in this song, "And I will love with urgency / But not with haste." It's one of those lines that you don't really know what it exactly means, but you also absolutely know exactly what it means. That's the kind of thing that I love about Mumford & Sons, and it seems like a nice end to the album.

Favorite part: The background harmony is pretty great in this song, but there's no one part that I particularly like over any other. Let's stick with the harmony.

Whoop/Har-Har: None.

Well, there you have it. A whoop or har-har on only six of the twelve songs, which was definitely the under (which I would have probably set at 7.5, for those keeping score at home). This album is certainly no Sigh No More, but it's still a really good album that deserves a listen. At least most of the songs on the album, which you hopefully have gleaned from this blog post. As usual, thanks for listening and thanks for reading!

Paradox

If you've seen both Inception and Lost, then you'll get what I mean when I say that this piece of music has elements of both in it (alright, it's pretty obvious that it has Inception elements, but I definitely hear some Lost in there, too). Currently, I'm in one of those moods where I think that nothing exists, so naturally, I'm going to blog about it. I read through all of my posts regarding time, and the general consensus that I don't really believe in it. One of my posts has a line that "time" only exists as an arbitrary assignment of a word to a concept that we don't really have any control over, or understanding of. I want this idea extrapolated to lots more concepts. Take the word "smart" for example. What exactly does it mean to be smart? Seriously, try and break it down for me. In my sport psych class, we talked about "talent" in the same way, that we just use the word "talent" in the face of not really being able to explain it any other way. I'm wondering if "honest" can be similarly considered. What does it mean to be an "honest" person? Are you honest 100% of the time? If the main mantra from House ("Everybody lies") is true, then it would follow that no one is perfectly honest. So where's the threshold for being considered honest, and how do we measure that? If we think of time as an arbitrary assignment to something that doesn't really exist, how many other things are there that we regularly use and think about that don't really exist?

Nothing is as it seems

Sorry it's been a while since I've blogged anything here...busy busy in recent weeks, but it's been enjoyable and exciting and lots of fun things all at once.

Something that I wanted to talk about is the idea that nothing is as it seems. I would have called this post "Through the looking glass" if I didn't already have a post with that title, but the general idea is that we can't really take anything at absolute, pristine face value. Anyone with half an idea of how I operate within this universe knows that I think everything is relative. Now before you throw counterexamples at me, let me qualify that. I know that every time I take two of something and add two more, I'll have four. What I mean is that with higher-order stuff, the implications of reality are something that are never absolute. An example of this - for my math thesis, I wanted to mess around with GPA and come up with some all-encompassing formula that takes into account circumstances such as overall courseload, general difficulty of an individual class, when that class meets...and many other variables. (Editor's Note: I'm not sure if I've ever talked about this on my blog before, and since it hasn't come to me immediately, I'm wagering that I haven't here.) Let's say you get an 82% on a given test. On one hand, you got 82 percent of the possible points. But that's not to say that you would get an 82 on that test every single time you took it. Let's say that you had another test in a more important class to study for, and let's say that you had a cold that week, and that you were in a fight with your best friend from home. In that case, an 82 looks pretty good - in more favorable circumstances, you might end up with something north of a 90. Nothing is absolute.

There's a quote from an ESPN the Magazine article about a prospect in the Los Angeles Angels farm system a few years back, and all of the hype surrounding this player (no, it wasn't Mike Trout).

"We plan for the future by averaging our expectations - 30% chance of rain, 20% chance of catching a spade on the river, 50% chance [the player would be an All-Star] - but we play it out only once. You never catch 20% of a spade. So [the player] was never going to be worth an average. He was going to be worth one thing, and that one thing could conceivably be anything."

I think it's a really cool example of how things either happen, or they don't. As much as I love statistics and numbers and analysis, things either happen, or they don't. And even when they do (or don't), we can't take that for granted. Despite all of the percentages and likelihoods, what we get is what we get, and what's important is what we do with it.