If you remember my postseason predictions well, you'll recall that I didn't really offer an explanation as to why the Red Sox would be crowned the 2013 World Series Champions. In fact, all I really wrote was "it's happening." While I certainly believe that to be true, here's the breakdown of the 109th Fall Classic, a rematch of the 1946, 1967, and 2004 World Series between the Red Sox and Cardinals.
Lineup
I meant to begin with the starting rotations, but the lineup affects too much in this. The Cardinals' righty-heavy rotation would lead one to believe that Daniel Nava sees a few starts for Boston, but one of the most important statistics of the postseason is that the Red Sox are 6-0 when Jonny Gomes starts in left field. Gomes hit .188 and struck out in 44% of his at-bats against Detroit, but simply put, the dude wins baseball games. I expect Red Sox manager John Farrell to stick with Gomes and rookie Xander Bogaerts, who demonstrated incredible plate discipline in his ALCS at-bats. St. Louis will be able to let RBI-machine Allen Craig DH, while the Red Sox have to lose Mike Napoli for at least a couple of games in St. Louis. (Farrell has already said that David Ortiz will play in the National League park.) The Red Sox lineup has been able to come through when they needed it most (think grand slams), but up-and-down, the Cardinals have fewer question marks.
Advantage: Cardinals
Starting Rotation
Both teams won their respective League Championship Series in six games, which means that for the most part, they have complete freedom with their pitching rotations. For the Red Sox, it will likely be Jon Lester, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz, and Jake Peavy. The Cardinals will probably roll with Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly, and Lance Lynn. Both teams were also tested in their respective LCS by facing good pitching; the Cardinals went 3-1 in games started by Clayton Kershaw or Zack Greinke, while Boston was a perfect 3-0 in games started by Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander. Of the combined six wins by the two teams, four of them were decided by one run. The pitchers for each of these pennant winners went toe-to-toe with some of the game's greats, and will do so for one final series. Clay Buchholz and Jake Peavy have been less-than-stellar this postseason, and the Cardinals take the advantage here, too.
Advantage: Cardinals
Bullpen
This one may be closer than one would think, but it still goes to Boston. Between Craig Breslow, Junichi Tazawa, and Koji Uehara, the Red Sox bullpen has been absolutely untouchable this postseason. One has to wonder if the wheels are close to falling off, but if the Red Sox relievers can hold on tight for one more series, they will be an important factor at the conclusion of games. The young Cardinals bullpen, comprised of Trevor Rosenthal, Seth Maness, and Carlos Martinez, has featured a bend-don't-break attitude throughout the postseason. They have done what they needed to, but Boston's bullpen is still the better of the two.
Advantage: Red Sox
Defense
We've seen the importance of defense throughout the playoffs - Wil Myers' misplayed fly ball in Game One of the ALDS; Jose Iglesias' error in Game Six of the ALCS that set up Shane Victorino's grand slam. The addition of Xander Bogaerts at third base means that most, if not all, ground balls to the left side of the infield will be played cleanly. Sure, Stephen Drew may not hit very well, but his defense is too valuable to not have him in the lineup. The Cardinals have the best defensive catcher in baseball in Yadier Molina, but the Red Sox will still aim to run and steal throughout the series. The advantage here goes to Boston only because of home field advantage and the intricacies of playing at Fenway Park. The Red Sox have played 86 games there in 2013, while the Cardinals' projected defense has played a combined 33 games in their careers at Fenway. Twenty-five of which being part of Carlos Beltran's seven years in the American League from 1998-2004.
Advantage: Red Sox
As you can see, this World Series breaks down relatively easily. Think back to the 2004 World Series. Was there any doubt the Red Sox were going to win after completing the comeback against the Yankees. How about 2007, when Boston overcame a 3-1 series deficit against Cleveland? Just last year, the San Fransisco Giants won three consecutive NLCS games to beat these same Cardinals in seven games, and then swept the Tigers in the World Series. Neither of these 2013 World Series teams is coming in on fire, but they've been playing sound baseball and have found ways to win games. So how do I end up with the Red Sox? They're the ones that have been finding ways all season, in the most unpredictable of ways. Boston has what it takes to win a final, grueling series. So do the Cardinals, but when all's said and done, the first song of the offseason will be "Dirty Water."
Prediction: Red Sox in 6
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