If you remember
my postseason predictions well, you'll recall that I didn't really offer an explanation as to why the Red Sox would be crowned the 2013 World Series Champions. In fact, all I really wrote was "it's happening." While I certainly believe that to be true, here's the breakdown of the 109th Fall Classic, a rematch of the 1946, 1967, and 2004 World Series between the Red Sox and Cardinals.
Lineup
I meant to begin with the starting rotations, but the lineup affects too much in this. The Cardinals' righty-heavy rotation would lead one to believe that Daniel Nava sees a few starts for Boston, but one of the most important statistics of the postseason is that the Red Sox are 6-0 when Jonny Gomes starts in left field. Gomes hit .188 and struck out in 44% of his at-bats against Detroit, but simply put, the dude wins baseball games. I expect Red Sox manager John Farrell to stick with Gomes and rookie Xander Bogaerts, who demonstrated incredible plate discipline in his ALCS at-bats. St. Louis will be able to let RBI-machine Allen Craig DH, while the Red Sox have to lose Mike Napoli for at least a couple of games in St. Louis. (Farrell has already said that David Ortiz will play in the National League park.) The Red Sox lineup has been able to come through when they needed it most (think grand slams), but up-and-down, the Cardinals have fewer question marks.
Advantage: Cardinals
Starting Rotation
Both teams won their respective League Championship Series in six games, which means that for the most part, they have complete freedom with their pitching rotations. For the Red Sox, it will likely be Jon Lester, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz, and Jake Peavy. The Cardinals will probably roll with Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly, and Lance Lynn. Both teams were also tested in their respective LCS by facing good pitching; the Cardinals went 3-1 in games started by Clayton Kershaw or Zack Greinke, while Boston was a perfect 3-0 in games started by Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander. Of the combined six wins by the two teams, four of them were decided by one run. The pitchers for each of these pennant winners went toe-to-toe with some of the game's greats, and will do so for one final series. Clay Buchholz and Jake Peavy have been less-than-stellar this postseason, and the Cardinals take the advantage here, too.
Advantage: Cardinals
Bullpen
This one may be closer than one would think, but it still goes to Boston. Between Craig Breslow, Junichi Tazawa, and Koji Uehara, the Red Sox bullpen has been absolutely untouchable this postseason. One has to wonder if the wheels are close to falling off, but if the Red Sox relievers can hold on tight for one more series, they will be an important factor at the conclusion of games. The young Cardinals bullpen, comprised of Trevor Rosenthal, Seth Maness, and Carlos Martinez, has featured a bend-don't-break attitude throughout the postseason. They have done what they needed to, but Boston's bullpen is still the better of the two.
Advantage: Red Sox
Defense
We've seen the importance of defense throughout the playoffs - Wil Myers' misplayed fly ball in Game One of the ALDS; Jose Iglesias' error in Game Six of the ALCS that set up Shane Victorino's grand slam. The addition of Xander Bogaerts at third base means that most, if not all, ground balls to the left side of the infield will be played cleanly. Sure, Stephen Drew may not hit very well, but
his defense is too valuable to not have him in the lineup. The Cardinals have the best defensive catcher in baseball in Yadier Molina, but the Red Sox will still aim to run and steal throughout the series. The advantage here goes to Boston only because of home field advantage and the intricacies of playing at Fenway Park. The Red Sox have played 86 games there in 2013, while the Cardinals' projected defense has played a combined 33 games
in their careers at Fenway. Twenty-five of which being part of Carlos Beltran's seven years in the American League from 1998-2004.
Advantage: Red Sox
As you can see, this World Series breaks down relatively easily. Think back to the 2004 World Series. Was there any doubt the Red Sox were going to win after completing the comeback against the Yankees. How about 2007, when Boston overcame a 3-1 series deficit against Cleveland? Just last year, the San Fransisco Giants won three consecutive NLCS games to beat these same Cardinals in seven games, and then swept the Tigers in the World Series. Neither of these 2013 World Series teams is coming in on fire, but they've been playing sound baseball and have found ways to win games. So how do I end up with the Red Sox? They're the ones that have been finding ways all season, in the most unpredictable of ways. Boston has what it takes to win a final, grueling series. So do the Cardinals, but when all's said and done, the first song of the offseason will be "Dirty Water."
Prediction: Red Sox in 6
Of all the teams to pull through for the city of Boston, it was the Red Sox. People will talk about the seeming turnaround from Boston as a baseball city to Boston as a hockey city, and rightfully so. In two years, the Bruins had won a Stanley Cup and two division titles. In the same two years, the Red Sox suffered one of the worst September collapses ever, and had a misery-filled 2012 season, culminated by the firing of a manager who epitomized zero of the ideals that belonged to the Red Sox and the culture of baseball in Boston. But 2013 completely reversed that, and cemented the Red Sox as Boston's team. For this year, for next year, for however long it is, Boston belongs to the Red Sox. And it's because this team cares, and this team gets it. Jonny Gomes, the poster child for the appeal of these 2013 Red Sox, came out after the World Series and said that "We didn't put Boston on our back...Boston put us on its back. I don't think a won-loss record sums up how much we care."
And this team cared because they knew what it meant for the city of Boston. The Red Sox are most closely associated with Marathon Monday, having played an 11:00am game on each Patriots' Day since 1968. Boston was desperately grabbing at something to hold on to, and every step along the way, the Red Sox were there. Daniel Nava's three-run homer to seal a come-from-behind victory in the first home game since the Marathon bombings. A historic number of walkoff victories. An emergence of a group of baseball players that let the city know that everything would be okay. Bill Simmons wonderfully writes about this in a recent article for Grantland. The key takeaway from that article, and something I've believed all season long, is this:
1. It feels like it was six weeks ago, let alone six months. Then again, it also feels like it's been way more than six months. That's what 's weird with these things, that they feel so recent and yet so far away in the past at the same time. Going home to Watertown has barely felt the same - driving past Vic and seeing styrofoam cups spelling out "Watertown Strong" in the fence is something I always make sure I do before I leave. And I don't know how long that will go on for. The cups may have left, the shirts may have left the windows of stores, but that feeling, that's gotta be around for a little while longer.
4. If you talk to anyone who was there on April 15, there's no doubt in anyone's mind that they're going to be there next year. Everyone who made it at least halfway through the marathon has automatically qualified for the 2014 race, but there will be even more people than were there this year. And I think that speaks to the pride people want to share with everyone involved in this. With everything that's happened in the past six months, everyone has to have had some source of happiness, reconcile, pride, whatever you wanna call it. And I think that there's no better way to display it than by being at the finish line in 2014.
