Madison Bumgarner and the real MVP

The winner of the 2014 World Series has yet to be determined, and by all official counts, so has the winner of the 2014 World Series MVP. One or two games will determine the former; I'm making the argument right now that the latter has already been decided, regardless of outcome. Only once has a World Series MVP come from the losing team (Bobby Richardson, 1960), and if it's going to happen a second time, the Giants' ace is the one to be that player.

Bumgarner's numbers are plain filthy - an earned run average of 0.29 in four career World Series starts and a 2014 postseason ERA of 1.13 in six outings. These are good, but exactly how good are they compared to his 3.06 career ERA? Well, that's where math comes in. Allow me to explain:

• Bumgarner's career ERA is 3.06. He's thrown 47.2 innings in the 2014 postseason, so at a standard rate, should allow 16.2 earned runs, or 2.7 runs per start. His actual sample of earned runs allowed this postseason is {0, 2, 0, 3, 1, 0} across those six starts. The likelihood that this sample occurs against the average of 2.7 runs per start is 1 in 46. That's some serious statistical significance.
• Now, a similar method with his four career World Series starts. In 31 innings, he has allowed one earned run. Compare this sample ({0, 0, 1, 0}) against what should be an average of 2.6 runs per game, and it should occur every 1 in 392 times.

Bumgarner has the lowest career World Series ERA ever for pitchers who have thrown at least 20 World Series innings. He has been effectively automatic in this World Series, being all but sharpied in for two victories before he even stepped on the mound. He steps up big in the playoffs, and has been the best player throughout this entire postseason. Kansas City may have already won the World Series if it wasn't for the dominant Bumgarner. Instead, the Giants stand one win away from their third championship in five years, and you can be sure that Bumgarner will be doing a lot of celebrating if San Francisco wins it all.

Like I said, a lot of celebrating.